CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-11T10:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42621/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):
Notes:
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale
G4).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1)
03-06UT 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 4.00
06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 3.33
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67
12-15UT 4.33 4.00 3.33
15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.33 3.00
18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 4.33 3.00
21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.33
Lead Time: 28.87 hour(s)Difference: 0.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-11T14:00Z
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